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1 July 2003
Livestock at Start of Season
“Sheep numbers eased 1.0 per cent to
39.15 million head in the year to 1 July 2003”, said Rob
Davison, Executive Director of ‘MWI Economic Service’ as
he released the results of a
recently completed survey of livestock numbers on hand at the start of
the 2003-04 farming
year.
“This was the fifteenth consecutive year sheep numbers have declined”,
said Rob Davison,
and went on to note that sheep numbers have now declined in 20 of
the last 21 years. Sheep
numbers peaked at 70.3 million head in 1982.
Mr Davison noted that dry conditions during the summer and autumn
of 2003 were a major
factor behind the decrease. “Sheep profitability has been good
in recent years, driven by good
demand for our lamb and mutton products in overseas markets. Low
or declining prices for
dairy, beef and venison have made the rebuilding of sheep numbers
even more attractive.
Unfortunately, extremely dry conditions in southern regions of the
North Island have meant
this was not possible this season”, said Mr Davison.
“The Taranaki-Manawatu region showed the greatest drop (-3.4%) in sheep
numbers followed
by the East Coast North Island region (-1.6%)”, said Rob Davison. “These
were the regions
hardest hit by drought during the summer and autumn periods”.
In all other regions, sheep numbers declined by less than 1.0 per
cent.
Ewe numbers and lamb outlook
“Breeding ewe numbers went down less than total sheep”, said Mr Davison. “This
reflects
efforts by farmers to protect the breeding capacity of the flock
despite the adverse conditions.
Breeding ewes were estimated to be down 0.7 per cent to 26.54 million
head. This is the
lowest total of breeding ewes since 1955 (48 years).”
“Ewes in the drought regions were mated in lighter condition than last
season, but elsewhere
ewe condition was good. This gives rise to expectation of lower average
conception rates,
and this has largely been confirmed by early scanning results”,
said Rob Davison. “At this
stage, we estimate the lambing percentage will be around 119 per
cent, although the final
result will depend on the weather at lambing time. This is the second
highest lambing
percentage on record, but is still 4.5 percentage points below last
season’s
record.”
“On this basis, the lamb numbers in the coming spring are estimated to
be down 1.4 million
head on last season’s total to 31.7 million head. Lamb numbers
are expected to be lower in
both islands”, said Mr Davison.
The actual lamb crop will be reported from a separate survey at the
end of lambing.
Beef cattle
In contrast to sheep, beef cattle numbers showed a small increase
(+0.9%) over the 12 month
period to 30 June 2003 to total 4.54 million. This was the third
consecutive year of increasing
MWI Economic Service Embargo until 1:00 am 1 August 2003
Improving Meat and Wool profitability
beef cattle numbers following a significant decline in the period
from 1995 to 2000.
However, even after this increase, beef cattle numbers remain well
below their “recent” peak
of 5.18 million head in 1995.
Some of this increase was unintentional due to slaughter delays in
the South Island meaning
that some cattle were still on hand at 30 June that would normally
have been slaughtered
earlier in the season. This saw South Island beef cattle numbers
lift 1.5 per cent to 1.17
million head.
North Island beef cattle numbers lifted 0.7 per cent to 3.37 million
head, with a decrease of
3.0 per cent in the Taranaki-Manawatu region being offset by increases
elsewhere.
Beef breeding cow numbers were stable in the North Island, but increased
strongly (+7.0%) in
the Marlborough-Canterbury region. This largely reflects herd rebuilding
from recent
droughts.
[ends]
For more information, contact Meat and Wool Innovation - Economic
Service:
Rob
Davison Executive Director 04 471 6034
Brian Speirs Chief Economist 04 471 6035
E-mail:
rob.davison@economicservice.co.nz
brian.speirs@economicservice.co.nz
Regional: Boyd Weir District Officer, Hamilton 07 839 0286
Doug Syme Senior District Officer, Napier 06 835 4629
Rex Williams District Officer, Feilding 06 323 4857
Bevan Whitty District Officer, Christchurch 03 366 9031
Richard Farquhar District Officer, Dunedin 03 489 9173
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